Seasonal Employment and the Economy

Seasonal Employment and the Economy

Amazon is standing still while the rest of the retail labor market slows down. For the third year in a row, the company plans to hire 250,000 seasonal workers, a number that feels as much about confidence as it does about logistics. This consistency stands out in a year when most of the retail sector is bracing for the weakest holiday hiring season since 2009.

Every holiday season tells a story about where the economy stands. Some years it reflects abundance and optimism. Other years it reveals caution and constraint. This year’s story begins with hesitation. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. projects retailers may add fewer than 500,000 seasonal positions in 2025, the lowest total in sixteen years. Some, like Target and Kohl's, are relying on existing staff or on-demand workers instead of expanding payrolls. Even in transportation and warehousing, where e-commerce once fueled rapid hiring, job growth has now declined for four straight years.

The economy is cooling beneath the surface. Tariffs are raising costs, inflation remains sticky, and wage expectations have shifted higher. Many companies are prioritizing efficiency over expansion, relying on automation and permanent staff to meet demand. The seasonal surge that once defined holiday employment is flattening into something smaller and steadier.

Source: Thomas Thompson - Chief Economist - Havas