Evaluating the Job Market - Factors affecting the Market has Effectively Stalled - Part 4

Evaluating the Job Market - Factors affecting the Market has Effectively Stalled - Part 4

Job Market Realities (Especially in the Technology Sector)

Fewer Job Openings: Total job postings for jobs in the tech sector remain down roughly 33% to 36% compared to peak pre-pandemic baselines.  That number is actually much higher given ghost posts, a practice that is notorious in the Silicon Valley.  This issue, combined with the "low hire; low hire environment) that is still highly evident (across all sectors, job titles and career experience levels, has created an epidemic known as "job hugging" - nobody is moving and most employees are getting low wage increases - creating employee disengagement.

Lastly the competition for jobs is high - When a role opens, hundreds of applicants—including seasoned professionals who were recently laid off—compete for the same position.  With the increase of AI driven resumes, which are unfavorably viewed by hiring managers (can be spotted via eyeballs as well as software products designed to ID AI, the job market is a complete mess.

Solution - When the Iranian War is over and their is a calming in inflation, coupled with companies willing to spend more because they can predict their cost of goods sold (COGs), then we will see a real uptick in job opportunities.

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Career Management Issues - From the Company Perspective

Career Management Issues - From the Company Perspective

Companies view employee career management from a staff retention, engagement and business continuity perspective.  When companies handle these issues badly, high turnover, low morale and poor worker skills, from lack or non-existent learning and development initiatives, take precedent.

Hurdle #1 - Fewer middle-management roles mean traditional vertical promotion ladders no longer exist.  This is important to understand because the job market thrives on mobility.  Without mobility, bottlenecks exist and those hurt are at the lower / entry levels - hence why recent college grads are having such a hard time and low-level to mid-level staff are "job hugging"

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Does this post add value to your business day? I post about job search best practices and issues related to the job market 2x per day M-F. Click "Follow" on my profile - Allan

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Job Hugging

  Job Hugging:

Job Hugging has not gone away. "Low Quit / Low Hire", which is defined as employed workers are hesitant to leave their jobs, reflecting a lack of confidence in finding new employment, remains a major factor affecting job flow. The job market as not been fluid and will continue to be this way until The Iranian situation stabilizes, inflation peaks / lessens, legal immigration rebounds, and the demand for products / services increase.

Does this post add value to your business day? I post about job search best practices and issues related to the job market 2x per day M-F. Click "Follow" on my profile - Allan

https://www.linkedin.com/in/abrownresumewriter/ (posting job search advice 1 – 2x daily)

Factors that have Created this Whacky Job Market - Q1 2026 - Layoffs / Company Restructuring / Overhiring from 2020-2022

 Factors that have Created this Whacky Job Market - Q1 2026 - Layoffs / Company Restructuring / Overhiring from 2020-2022

Following a period of aggressive hiring during and immediately after the pandemic, couple with artificial intelligence (AI) penetration into daily job functions, many companies have adopted a cautious strategy to hiring, leading to longer interview cycles and fewer openings for roles.  In addition, layoffs in sectors like tech and logistics have contributed to a fear-driven market, lengthening hiring cycles and creating log jams in many companies, creating "job hugging" and lack of movement. 

Job Hugging:

 Job Hugging:

Elaborating on my earlier post, the country is going through a period of "lower quit rates", which is defined as employed workers are hesitant to leave their jobs, reflecting a lack of confidence in finding new employment. The job market as not been fluid and will continue to be this way until legal immigration rebounds, tariff scares stabilize and the demand for products and services increase.

Factors That Have Made the Job Market More Difficult in 2026 (Job Hugging):

 Factors That Have Made the Job Market More Difficult in 2026 (Over Hiring):

Workers aren’t leaving the jobs they have (this is recognized as "job hugging". The number of jobs people quit in December came to 3.2M, the Labor Department reported Thursday, well below the 4.5M hit in March 2022, when postpandemic hiring was in full swing. The quits rate, which measures quits as a share of employment, was 2%, well short of the 2.3% it averaged in 2019, before the pandemic.

All is relevant because the bulk of hiring in any given month is replacing people who have left. The low level of quits is probably driven by workers’ sense that the labor market is fragile and that available opportunities are in short supply.

Source: WSJ

Job Hugging - Some managers like it, even for underperforming professionals.

 

Job Hugging - Some managers like it, even for underperforming professionals.

While most of us strive to be the best we can be, many are not as career oriented and do not strive for career progression. These professionals come complacent in their jobs and do the minimum or slightly better to hold onto their jobs.

While this does aggravate some managers, there are managers who value experience and mediocre production as opposed to great production and assertive staff.

The rationale for this is complex but one reason is that the manager knows what he/she are getting and accept the status quo as opposed to recruiting, hiring and training new staff. In many organizations, upward mobility is limited / non-existent and having production that the manager can count on outweighs the issues surrounding recruiting, onboarding, training and the fear of diminished production.

Job Hugging - Security is More Important than Pay

 

Back from vacation and working full steam ahead... 

 

Job Hugging - Security is More Important than Pay

Given the job numbers released on Friday, the job market is "dormant" - limited movement, limited hiring.  

While this is cyclical and will change as interest rates come down and things normalize with tariffs (company's will realize the impact is not what has been antiicpated) immigation (the legal border will not close forever) and fears about foreign wars, social unrest and more, the opportunities for making consideration more money from moving from job to job have decreased significantly.  

And resigning without a plan feels more reckless now than in the good old days (2021). Back then, you could get by on pandemic savings and stimulus money, live and work from an overseas cafe for a while - life was GRAND! How times have changed in just a few short years. Today, employees are unwilling to risk change. The number of Americans quitting their jobs, and the openings available to people looking for work, continue to decline, according to federal data released on last week.

The result - "job hugging" the trend of staying put out of fear; this is a sharp turn from the job hopping of recent years.

More Job Hugging

 From the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK -

U.S. workers’ confidence in finding new jobs has hit a record low in surveys dating back to 2013, according to polling from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The decline spanned age, income and education groups and has presented challenges for managers who rely on unmotivated, disengaged, underperforming staff to leave the company voluntarily. 

This "phenomenon", known as "job hugging", a cause of a poor, uncertain labor market, results in delays in promotional opportunities (no upward mobility because not one is leaving), little opportunity for improved merit compensation and more.

More Job Hugging:

More Job Hugging:

This is a new headache for employees, bosses and the economy writ large.

Go-getters hankering for promotions might lose out if mediocre co-workers refuse to vacate the next rung on the corporate ladder. 

“When people were moving during the Great Resignation, that allowed others to get promoted, perhaps ahead of schedule and have a stretch job,” says Alan Guarino, vice chairman of consulting firm Korn Ferry. “Now people can’t move up and they potentially get demotivated because of the lack of opportunity.”

Managers, meanwhile, were only a short time ago complaining about low retention rates. Now, there might not be enough healthy turnover to reinvigorate their teams.

Source: WSJ.com

Job Hugging - Security is More Important than Pay

Job Hugging - Security is More Important than Pay

Given the job numbers released on Friday, the job market is "dormant" - limited movement, limited hiring.  

While this is cyclical and will change as interest rates come down and things normalize with tariffs (company's will realize the impact is not what has been antiicpated) immigation (the legal border will not close forever) and fears about foreign wars, social unrest and more, the opportunities for making consideration more money from moving from job to job have decreased significantly.  

And resigning without a plan feels more reckless now than in the good old days (2021). Back then, you could get by on pandemic savings and stimulus money, live and work from an overseas cafe for a while - life was GRAND!  How times have changed in just a few short years. Today, employees are unwilling to risk change. The number of Americans quitting their jobs, and the openings available to people looking for work, continue to decline, according to federal data released on last week.

The result - "job hugging" the trend of staying put out of fear; this is a sharp turn from the job hopping of recent years.

Job Hugging - Some managers like it, even for underperforming professionals.

 Job Hugging - Some managers like it, even for underperforming professionals.

While most of us strive to be the best we can be, many are not as career oriented and do not strive for career progression. These professionals come complacent in their jobs and do the minimum or slightly better to hold onto their jobs.

While this does aggravate some managers, there are managers who value experience and mediocre production as opposed to great production and assertive staff.

The rationale for this is complex but one reason is that the manager knows what he/she are getting and accept the status quo as opposed to recruiting, hiring and training new staff. In many organizations, upward mobility is limited / non-existent and having production that the manager can count on outweighs the issues surrounding recruiting, onboarding, training and the fear of diminished production.